Low-frequency variability of the Pacific Subtropical Cells as reproduced by coupled models and ocean reanalyses

Abstract Low-frequency variability of the Pacific Subtropical Cells (STCs) is investigated using outputs from several models included in two latest phases Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), CMIP5 and CMIP6, as well ocean reanalysis products. Our analysis focuses on historical simulations an idealised future scenario integration. Mass heat transport diagnostics are employed to assess how coupled reanalyses reproduce STCs total interior convergence at equator their relationship with equatorial sea surface temperature (SST). Trends mass also evaluated, order study expected change a warming climate. A large spread obtained across simulated transports, confirming that do not agree reproducing observed dynamics, very limited improvement by CMIP6 models. Compared products, tend underestimate convergence, less efficient propagating signal generated subtropical wind stress towards equator. Also, exhibit larger variability, these products better STCs-SST relationship. Future suggest weakening (strengthening) North (South) cell under warmer conditions, general agreement Equatorward trends confirm this for components, but they western boundary component.